Election Coverage / Election Integrity / Politics

Long View: An Early Look at the 2022 Midterm Picture

election

While Americans across the country can never wait for election day to be over, the political pundits all look forward to it for a different reason: the beginning of the next campaign cycle. Given the voting irregularities of the last cycle, public backlash, a second presidential impeachment, and Democrats ramrodding $6 trillion in spending, much has happened already that could affect the 2022 midterm elections. But we’re just getting started, and you can expect to see some more dysfunction and partisan finger-pointing in Washington in the weeks and months ahead. Here’s an early look at 2022.

History is typically the most reliable predictor of election outcomes, and the old adage that the President’s party loses seats in midterms seems to ring true historically. Since 1932, only twice has the President’s party gained seats in a midterm election – in 1934 and 2002. With Democrats clinging to a slim House majority, many talking heads at this point expect Republicans to win back the House, given the numbers and other factors such as Republicans’ control of 30 state legislatures post census.

The numbers game on the Senate side is currently tight, with a 50/50 Senate in place for Democrats to lose. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may be feeling slightly better at the time being than his Republican counterpart; however, going into 2022 for two reasons. 1) Of the 34 Senate seats up in 2022, Democrats only have to defend 14 up compared to the 20 seats Republican hold (a tough map for Republicans to be sure); and 2) Five senior Republican Senators have announced their retirement, with more possible in the months ahead. Thus, a large number of open Senate seats give Democrats a greater possibility of holding or even adding to their majority. But the unpopularity of the policies Democrats are pushing could, as they did in 2010, come back to bite them at the ballot box.

Then there are issues that drive Americans to the polls, like the border crisis, the unsteady economy, rising inflation, massive spending and a ballooning deficit, a worker shortage, and tax increases, just to name a few. High-profile judicial decisions will also be in the mix, as just this month, the Supreme Court announced that it would take up cases regarding abortion and gun control. This will be the first time that the 6-3 presumably majority-conservative court will weigh in on those issues since Justice Amy Comey Barrett was confirmed in 2020. Although next year isn’t a Presidential election year like 2016, Republican success in the past has been pushed by the Republican base being acutely aware of the status and potential outcome of the Supreme Court. Expect the outcomes of these decisions to become campaign fodder next year.

Of course, anything can happen in the roughly 500 days between now and November 8, 2022. These past two years have certainly taught us to expect the unexpected. If the past is any guide though, Democrats are likely to overreach, overstep, and overspend, leading to a pushback during the 2022 midterm elections. That’s an early look at just some of the dynamics in play as November 2022 continues to come into focus.

 

Palmer Schoening is part of AMAC Action’s advocacy team in Washington, DC

 

 

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JOHN
18 days ago

The actuality of what happened in 2020 looms on the storm cloud on the 2022 horizon.
Simply put as:
“The People that Vote do NOT Count!”
“The People that COUNT the Votes do Count!”
**** Josef Stalin****

Andrew P
1 month ago

I think 2022 looks right now like a status quo to slight Dem gain election in the Senate, and possibly narrow Republican takeover of the House. I think the Court will overturn Roe v Wade 4 months before the election, and this will drive allfuent suburbanites to turn out and vote Democrat and help the Dems retain the Senate. But there will also be a backlash against Biden policies, and these two backlashes will cancel out to some extent. Everything really depends on how the House goes, because the Dems can’t pass any radical legislation if they lose the House by even 1 seat short of 218.

Myrna S Wade
1 month ago

the outcome of the 2022 election depends upon who runs. Who runs depends upon the spirit of citizens. I hope some good people will be inspired to run. BUT it looks like there is hidden power beneath the radar. It feels like DC is a bad place where good people have a very hard time. The gangs now may differ from the MAFIA (or may be the same power in new suits). How could the green new deal and the corollary destruction of energy independence be sailing through? Malign actors.

JohnH
1 month ago

Big question remains to be seen in 2022: Will people accept election results or call them corrupt if their party does not win. And will they refuse to leave office? I hope the 2020 election is not a road map for future: and especially for Republican Party.

C M
1 month ago

Regarding this: “Since 1932, only twice has the President’s party gained seats in a midterm election – in 1934 and 2002.” It actually happened three times — also 1998.

Andrew P
1 month ago
Reply to  C M

That is correct.

Wanda
1 month ago

More than anything, we must keep these communists from cheating in 2022…like they did in 2020…even if we have to send militia members to overlook the election polls….whatever it takes to keep them from cheating again.

Bill Brown
1 month ago

We won the 2020 Election by a huge margin only to have it stolen by the DemocRats (Communists), the Justice Department, the FBI, and the Courts (including 7 members of the Supreme Court)!!!!! All else is USELESS and MEANINGLESS until we FORCE free and fair elections BY OUR CONSTITUTION!!!!!

PFArizona
1 month ago

In 2021 so far, three Republican U.S. senators — Roy Blunt (MO), Rob Portman (OH), and Richard Shelby (AL) — have announced they won’t be seeking another term. Meanwhile, two others — Pat Toomey (PA) and Richard Burr (NC), both of whom voted to convict former President Trump in his impeachment trial — had announced their retirements prior to January.

No Democratic senators are running for reelection in states won by former President Donald Trump in 2020, while Republicans are defending two seats in states won by President Biden,” including Toomey’s seat and Sen. Ron Johnson’s seat in Wisconsin

So they won’t be missed. Republicans need to have great “America First” candidates running to replace them. And also in the Blue States. People who only vote Democrat will hopefully see what the Socialist Democrats are doing to their country. DC Democrats want private ownership but total Government Control and Regulations = Fascism. We the people do not need the government deciding what is good for us.

Marilyn
1 month ago

Well, if truth be known, we didn’t want this and we still have the problem of vulnerability when it comes to the mail-in voting and counting the votes, dominion machines, etc. What good is it to run to the poll when more than 1/2 of the country feel we got cheated last time.

Honey
1 month ago

It is imperative that we stop S.1 from passing. We must not allow this unconstitutional bill to become law. write and call Senator Manchin’s office and your senators and urge them to vote against this monstrosity. If we hope to win seats in 2022, this bill must be stopped or there will be no more free elections and we will become a one party Communist tyranny very quickly.

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago

I believe it is safe to say the Democratic Party has already spent themselves right out of office…From the Manchurian candidate acting as the 46th potus currently sitting in the big chair & his O’Biden cabinet along with Susan Rice & Hussein Obama himself whispering sweet nothings into Biden’s ear piece, the nation as a whole is suffering & in a bad way…We can’t wait till 2024 for Trump to run again, that will NOT happen in either case imho. Right this moment Donald J. Trump is the Republican Party along with his America First Agenda, that never went away as it shouldn’t. Old school Republican RINO’s, step aside, Y’all are a hindrance to the parties narrative…It is simply a matter of time, the Liz Cheney’s & Mittens Romney’s of the world will be relegated to the dustbins of history…
We now know the effectiveness of SCOTUS as well with a slim majority of conservatives mattered not when it mattered the most…
Every red blooded true American patriot has been traumatized as a direct result of these Marxist driven Democrat politicians holding the keys to power in this nation & in closing, their day is coming, soon, very soon…
God Bless America,
Bill on the Hill… :~)

Dr. Steven Chess
1 month ago

Hi Andrew Mangione,

My name is Steven Chess. I am 71 and proud to be an American
I am a rebranded American!
I left the Democrat party after 50 years and am now a Republican running for a seat in Congress.

I left AARP and soon after joined AMAC when they supported The Democrat party on Obama Care. I do not want the government to control health care in the united States and be in a position to limit our care based on our age.

I am pleased to let you know that for years now I have read and shared articles written in your magazine. I noted that last issue you Victoria Spartz a new Republican congresswoman. I found it informative and a view of life prior to becoming an American Citizen. It seems she has gone from being a Soviet Citizen to now a Congresswoman.

This is why I say there is only “American Privilege” and not as the Dems would have you believe “White Privilege”‘. In my world everyone that is residing in America is ” Privileged”. We as a nation are being propagandized by the Democrats.

I too came from humble beginnings. As my mom said when I questioned our station in life “Son we are not poor … we are just without funds”. She was so right.

What allowed me to be so blessed is the U. S. Bill of rights and the our Constitution. I hold the constitution to be the greatest document ever written , second only to the bible.

How about an article on in AMAC about Older Americans running in Federal, State and local elections like myself? It seems we are the unseen and unheard.

As I say in all my stump speeches, its time those who are knowledgeable and that are unhappy with the Democrat policies get off there butts, stop screaming at their T.V. Sets, radio’s and do something.

Most older Americans know that Dem’s and their socialistic Communism will not work. Open borders will not work. Closing down our domestic energy sector will not work. Censorship will destroy the Truth. For older Americans if allowed to continue it will wipe out our retirement.

We owe it to the future generations that we educate them and remove those from our government that are intent on taking away our freedoms and destroying the American Dream.

If you want to know more about me please go to my website chessforCongres.com There you will find everything you may need to know about me. If you have other questions please feel free to email them to me.

Warmest Regards,

Dr. Steven Chess

Carol
1 month ago

Dear Steven: Thank you for your speaking up and saying those things that I and my husband have tried to tell people for the last 40+ years. He was born in Berlin in 1938 and was subjected to soviet rule in East Germany until he was 18. I was in the soviet union 1991-1992 in health care and upon my return I tried so much to let people know what was predicted for this country. However all I said fell on deaf ears. I have tried to stay so active in my profession and I will tell you my thoughts. I feel that the Wuhan virus was designed to kill off all of the older people as we know that what they are trying to do to the USA will not work. And what my husband and I lived through is proof of what is happening here. I will go on to your website and see where you are running. I intend to support the young man who will run again against the “useful idiot” in Oregon. Take care and you will definitely hear from me. Carol

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