Election Coverage / Government Watch / Politics

Current Polling on 2022 Midterms: Could Republicans Take the House and Senate?

Republicans

In American politics these days, every election is the most important election of our lifetime, because the stakes continue to be raised on an increasing number of issues that impact the daily lives of Americans. While non-presidential elections get less fanfare in the media they are no less important. In fact, midterm elections have historically served as a check on the power of the Presidency and the party controlling Congress. This is a natural and necessary ebb and flow of power, designed to prevent any permanent majority from emerging. 

As we have previously quipped on these pages, over the last 40 years of midterm elections, the party that controls the U.S. House of Representatives typically loses, on average, 26 seats. Today, Democrats hold a three-vote majority, 221-209, with five vacancies (218 seats needed for a majority). A 26-seat victory this November would handily give Republicans control of the House. 

In the Senate, things are even closer with the current 50-50 split. This year, 35 Senate seats are up for election, with 15 Republican and 13 Democrat incumbents running, and seven open seats, six of which were held by Republicans. Fortunately for Republicans, even though they are defending more seats than Democrats and have to compete in open seats vacated by Republicans, some of which are in purple-ish states like North Carolina, they have the historical wind at their back. 

Recent polling of the generic congressional ballot over the cycle shows a Real Clear Politics average of 45.8% support for Republicans compared to 42.3% for Democrats. One would expect the Republican congressional ballot poll average to be higher, especially with a President in office with an abysmal 51.7% unfavorable RCP average but even that small advantage translates to enough seats to take the House. Liberal pundits are seeming to sense something big is coming. MSNBC’s Chuck Todd referred to the upcoming midterm elections as being “bad or catastrophic” for Democrats. With inflation hitting 8.5% over the last year as of March 31st, and continuing to rise, who can blame Americans for not being on board with the Democratic agenda? 

Two of the nation’s top political ratings forecasters, the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, moved 8 and 11 competitive House races, respectively, all in favor of Republicans. Cook’s analysis summed up the mood most Americans are feeling today, stating “President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled. That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities.”

Given all of these factors, political observers are now saying that the question is not if Republicans will take back Congress, but the question is by how much?

Bob Carlstrom is President of AMAC Action


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Jerry Gregoire
10 days ago

I think the Dems have given up on 2022. Sure they will try to blunt the carnage and the talking point of ‘It wasn’t as bad as everyone thought.’ is likely already printed on memos to go out. I think they are pinning their hopes on 2024. That would require a significant change in the #1 issue: The economy. And it could change. But it is only 2 1/2 years away and who do they have? Biden, Clinton, Sanders, Warren? Between being Biden on steroids to toxic they need a more palatable candidate. Yang or Buttigieg? Perhaps but these guys never had chance even in their own primaries. Conversely, the Republicans have a host of well known candidates: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Pompeo, with Trump being the most popular on the right and vilified on the left. The remaining are largely respected by the majority of the American public. It is possible that we will see a return to sanity for sometime to come. Let’s hope so.

Robin Boyd
1 month ago

We need more of a President Trump attitude in Congress regardless of which political party it comes from. President Trump is not a staunch conservative and he opposes D.C. Swamp dwellers from either party. Too many Socialist Democrats.

Becky
1 month ago

And this time….the Traitorous, useless, corrupt GOP had better get off their azzes and start FIXING things!
Or…. it’s time for an “all hands on deck” march ON Washington DC that will make Jan 6th pale in comparison……

Robin Boyd
1 month ago
Reply to  Becky

There are still too many D.C. Swamp dwellers in the Republican Party. Still, that does not make the Republican Party as overall bad as the Democrat Party which is completely controlled by Socialist minded Progressives who are merely doing the bidding of billionaire Socialists and Communist Chinese. I’ll vote for a moderate Democrat over a swamp dwelling Republican any day.

Jerry Gregoire
10 days ago
Reply to  Robin Boyd

You have about a half dozen to choose from and none of them will run for president.

BAE
1 month ago

Oh God, I hope the republicans take the House and Senate. But when they do, I hope they do right by the American taxpayers. We have been let down so often!

BACKWOODS
1 month ago

stopthewho.com is a must before this hidden agenda gets passed. The Biden administration is trying to sneak this through, it is going to be devastating to this countries sovereignty. The Biden administration plans on selling us out to the WHO, giving them and the UN total control of our health.

Becky
1 month ago
Reply to  BACKWOODS

Yes they do. With Bill Gates leading the evil.

Garye
1 month ago

Certainly good news for America Mr. Carlstrom!
My concern is two-fold, will Republican voters become complacent between now and the election? Are the Republicans going to make significant changes benefitting Citizens or focus on politics over policies???
Historically, the Citizens and their priorities seem to become less important after the voting.
We need a positive America first agenda and the leaders to make it happen.
Thanks for the article,thought provoking and well written.

Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago

Even then I have my doubts based on the field of Republicans I see in Nevada that they will do anything FOR ME. The one good thing is that even if Republicans don’t do “FOR ME” unlike Democrats, they don’t do anything TO ME! Is it too much to just be left alone by this government? Ever since Biden got in office, it has been one thing after another that actually affects my everyday life!

PFARIZONA
1 month ago

Biden’s approval rating at 42%. I find it hard to believe it’s that high. And the suburban housewives who voted for him, how’s that working out for you? Republicans will save America. Democrats have put America on the road to destruction. We bette get off that road in November!

Panamajack
1 month ago
Reply to  PFARIZONA

Thanks for posting!!!

Mario Capparuccini
1 month ago
Reply to  PFARIZONA

Very good post. Afghanistan, inflation, soaring crime, Ukraine, and I wonder who the 42% are? They must be blind, or depraved, or on George Soros’ payroll!

Garye
1 month ago

Mario,
Isn’t it amazing that they claim 75 million voted for joebama but none of them admit it now????
The ones who did must be SO proud of this 100% failure ……laughable

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  PFARIZONA

Yes, the direction of the marxist democrat party has been disastrous for Our Country!
Let’s go People, Our turn to take back America!

Walt
1 month ago

Our illustrious President swears he is Catholic in good standing…….the hierarchy of the church does not have the balls to excommunicate him or our Illustrious speaker of the house…….but……they protect priests who molest children and then they lie to Catholics like myself who love the church…..go figure

Dave
1 month ago
Reply to  Walt

Gee, how many years have you been asleep…Seventy?

Barb
1 month ago

I would think the Republicans could take the House and Senate with all the “democrat storms” going on for the past 16+ months, but my grandma used to always say “don’t count your chickens before they hatch”. The Republicans should not let their guard down at all, as the democrats always have some sneaky crooked ways going in motion.

Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago
Reply to  Barb

I’m predicting another COVID “variant” that states invoke more “emergency measures” to voting laws like in 2020…

Dave
1 month ago
Reply to  Robert Zuccaro

You catch on slow…

Martin Plecki
1 month ago

I say don’t any Republican get complacent. We thought we had the presidencies sewed up in 2020 and Democrats came up with a way to cheat their way to getting their guy in the White House. Volunteer to watch polls. And, talk to your Democratic acquaintances:-)

Panamajack
1 month ago
Reply to  Martin Plecki

My thoughts exactly!

Mike
1 month ago
Reply to  Martin Plecki

Trump implemented some good policies, but he has a very abrasive personality. He says some really stupid and divisive things. If he could just keep his mouth shut and stay off social media, he would be less of a target, and we would undoubtedly win hands down in November. Yet he won’t so he will lose again. He is our biggest liability. I am not a Republican. I am a conservative independent. We need someone who can bring America together. Trump has shown that he is either incapable or unwilling to do so.

Honey
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

Do not be silly.
DeSantis is perfect. We all know that. But do you think the left media won’t demonize him even worse than they did Trump?
It has nothing to do with Trump’s behavior. The left demonized Romney and McCain. Nice well behaved, moderate sweet accommodating people. That’s all they have, lying projection, destruction and demonizing. The left has nothing good to offer. Whatever they touch they ruin.

If Trump runs, vote for him and say nothing to any liberal about his faults. That is their game,. It is not ours.
I hate “yes, but” when it comes to our side.

Garye
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

I’ll take a bit of sarcasm, direct speak to the swamp,over this pathetic joebama and marxist democrats failure!
President Trump was for America and Citizens!
Greatest President of my lifetime!!

Sockgal
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike

You are totally correct. My feelings exactly.

Stephen Russell
1 month ago

See NO real Vision or Plans & NO strong leadership visible Yet save Cruz, Jordan, Cotton, Cawthorn, Scott,

Patriot Bill
1 month ago

Two parties
One hates America and wants to destroy it
The other wants to promote life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
But we have lost justice, law and common sense. If the election isn’t rigged the Republicans should lead for the next 100 years. Ultra MAGA ;)

Dave
1 month ago
Reply to  Patriot Bill

The other wants to promote life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Wow…have you been sold a bill of goods…!

Panamajack
1 month ago
Reply to  Dave

Compared to this…. $5 a gal gasoline, Genocide in Ukraine, and a Pres w/ a Crack Head for a son… :^) — this is a bill of goods

Dave
1 month ago
Reply to  Panamajack

Hate to tell you, but they’ve spiked your punch…

Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago
Reply to  Dave

Your punch apparently needs to be taken intravenously, comrade…

Bill on the Hill
1 month ago
Reply to  Patriot Bill

Great comment Patriot Bill…
Bill… :~)

Hdrydr
1 month ago

At this point, it doesn’t matter. Too many God damned RINO’s in the bag of political feces.

Robert Zuccaro
1 month ago
Reply to  Hdrydr

I look up everyone on the internet. Found one that posted on FB lauding Planned Parenthood and one supporting Lyndon LaRouche. What they post is sometimes more revealing then what they say!

Dave
1 month ago

…and…this was important to post?!?!?!

As your penance, watch some episodes of Life Is Worth Living and document the times when the late Bishop Fulton J. Sheen talked like this.

Amacer
1 month ago

I have serious doubts the Republicans will take any significant seats in the House and Senate. Why? Because the 2020 presidential election was stolen without any accountability or punishment. Does anyone think the Democrats won’t cheat to the max in all future elections?

Mimi
1 month ago
Reply to  Amacer

I agree. As far as I can see no one has done anything to prevent cheating in future elections.

anna hubert
1 month ago

winner takes it all providing there is no extra ace in the sleeve and pack is fresh

Marc Ziegler
1 month ago

Yes, and the White House!!! Period!!!

ops
1 month ago

Written by Josiah Gilbert Holland and read before the Senate by Chaplain Peter Marshall
“God, give us men! A time like this demands
Strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands;
Men whom the lust of office does not kill;
Men whom the spoil of office cannot buy;
Men who possess opinions and a will;
Men who have honor; men who will not lie;
Men who can stand alone before a demagogue and damn
His Treacherous flatteries without winking!
Tall men, sun – crowned, who live above the fog
In public duty and in private thinking.”

Old Papa
1 month ago
Reply to  ops

Agreed. Sadly only about 12 to 15 could match this reading. That includes the House and the Senate.

Sandi
1 month ago

God willing

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