Election Coverage / Government Watch / Politics

After 2022 Disappointments, GOP Looks to 2024 Senate Map

AMAC Exclusive – By Seamus Brennan

senate
Utah’s Senator Mitt Romney (R)

Although conservatives are rightly celebratory in the wake of Republicans’ new House majority, the GOP’s failure to recapture the Senate has made the weeks following Election Day unexpectedly bittersweet after lofty predictions of a “red wave.” But with a highly favorable Senate map in 2024, the right conditions could put Republicans in a position to pick up as many as 11 seats in the upper chamber.

Come November 2024, Democrats will be forced to defend a whopping 23 incumbent seats—nearly half of their Senate caucus—including a number of vulnerable Democrats in swing states and traditional Republican strongholds.

Most notably, the GOP will have the chance to knock out incumbent Democrats Jon Tester from Montana, Joe Manchin from West Virginia, and Sherrod Brown from Ohio – all states where other Republican statewide candidates have won handily in recent years. Donald Trump easily carried each state in 2020, beating Joe Biden by an eight percent margin in Ohio, 16.4 percent margin in Montana, and a staggering 38.9 percent margin in West Virginia.

Each endangered incumbent Democrat has also voted largely in lockstep with the historically unpopular Biden agenda—a pattern that is almost certain to become more noticeable to voters as 2024 draws closer. And in an environment in which Biden continues to face shockingly low approval ratings and the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of recession, conservatives have every reason to be confident in these impending red state showdowns.

But Republicans’ promising 2024 prospects extend well beyond these conservative enclaves. Also up for reelection next cycle is Arizona incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Tim Kaine of Virginia, and in more of a long-shot chance for a GOP Senate pickup, Maine’s Independent Senator Angus King (who caucuses with the Democratic Party and has not yet committed to seeking another term in office). Given that Republicans came within striking distance of picking up Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (and retained a competitive seat in Wisconsin), the competitive nature of this year’s New Mexico gubernatorial race, and Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory to win the Virginia governor’s mansion in 2021, the GOP should feel bullish on their chances in many of these races.

Furthermore, Utah’s Republican Senator Mitt Romney—who remains detested by much of the GOP voting base and routinely votes against the interests of his party and his voters—is up for reelection in 2024 and is almost certain to face a brutal primary challenge. In West Virginia, Republican Congressman Alex Mooney has already declared his candidacy against Manchin, and other West Virginia Republicans are sure to follow suit. After the Georgia Senate runoff and the onset of the new year, more and more candidates are expected to announce their candidacies, bringing the 2024 campaign season into full swing and putting a large number of incumbent Democrats on the defensive.

Though it of course remains unlikely that Republicans will win every single one of the 11 in-play Senate seats and achieve a filibuster-proof 60-seat Senate majority, the fact remains that 2024 presents Republicans with their greatest chance in years to win a decisive Senate majority that—along with a Republican House and reliably conservative president—could at long last allow the party to enact some of its key policy goals and affect lasting and decisive change on the federal level.

Needless to say, the party has its work cut out for it before GOP leaders and operatives can get too confident about their 2024 prospects. This year’s elections showed conservatives that, until they can get serious about finding ways to combat the left’s use of mail-in ballots, drop boxes, and ballot harvesting to rig elections in their favor, they will continue to struggle in key races.

But if Republicans play their cards right and use the next two years to ensure they are competing on a level playing field with the left – and are selecting strong candidates – November 5, 2024 could prove to be a decisive day for the American conservative movement.

Whether the GOP machine chooses to seize the moment and make the most of this key once-in-a-generation opportunity, however, remains to be seen.


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Hal-
2 months ago

It doesn ‘t matter who runs for what office in any state! If the vote rigging by the DemocRats can’t be squashed, the Nation will continue its slide into Communist governance masked as the DemocRat Party.

Peter
2 months ago

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah! Mitt Romney the Carpetbagger 2.0 just like Hilary Clinton and many politicians! Trump Won Election 2016!Trump Won Election 2020!Trump endorsed MAGA Candidates won Election 2022!I am loading up with all my God given inalienable rights as annotated in the US Constitution!Just think of Sean Connery’s character in the movie “The Untouchable’s”! I am done with milquetoast representatives!

Rebecca Gavin
14 days ago
Reply to  Peter

Annotated in the Constitution? The dumb on this page makes a person swoon..

Guy Cooksey
2 months ago

Nothing will happen if we don’t get rid of the voter fraud! Period!

Sandra Brown
2 months ago
Reply to  Guy Cooksey

I think there has always been voter fraud to some extent. There are good people and bad people(those who don’t do the right things) and those bad ones will always cheat at anything they can get away with! We just have to try to make those that have the power to do something about it, DO!

Paul
2 months ago
Reply to  Guy Cooksey

Agreed!

Rebecca Gavin
14 days ago
Reply to  Guy Cooksey

Lordy you people are simple- minded. It just amazes me constantly how darn dumb you are. And gullible too. You’ll believe almost anything

JimG
2 months ago

Current Republicabs couldn’t lead when they had House and Senate under Trump and they are still the same old broken record. Blah blah blah

Bob
2 months ago

With GOP senate leadership that does not want to be in power and who also controls monies that is needed by the candidates, we will not ever regain the senate. Most of the GOP senators are satisfied to have democrats in charge because they don’t have a problem with what is being passed they just need the voters to blame someone else. Republican for 51 years.

Rebecca Gavin
14 days ago
Reply to  Bob

Right. Mitch McConnell doesn’t want to be in power. ????

John
2 months ago

We have to Take Back America to preserve its values and principles. Mitt Romney disappointed me and betrayed his values, in my opinion. He is not a strategic or dynamic leader and his judgement has been clouded by his petty envy and jealousy of Donald Trump. I voted for Mitt and he let me down. I hope he can repent and see the light. God did not tell him to vote for impeachment his vanity did and he needs to learn to listen the Holy Ghost not the other guy. I only care about the USA fulfilling its destiny to be a light into the world and to be a force for good. I am not someone who will follow any leader blindly. But I do know who can win the battle and selection of the right “generals” is critical for us to save America. I like this article because it is strategic and the right direction.

Ray
2 months ago
Reply to  John

Well said John.

Dave
2 months ago

We shall see, it’s just such a huge swamp of worthless politicians and it includes a lot of Republicans , term limits would help somewhat…

Sid
2 months ago

You finally hit it in the third to last paragraph. We have to overcome the 3am emergency Democrat voters. But we must also overcome the RINO effect, which is running rampant in our party. Ferret Face McConnell needs to go. So does RINO McCarthy.

Tom Vantine
2 months ago

Seems to me that our chances improve noticeably if we leave Trump behind but I guess time will tell whether that’s an accurate assessment of our current situation

Patriate Henry
2 months ago

Paul Ogden is a communist dem, troll. MAGA….

Paul K Ogden
2 months ago

“Furthermore, Utah’s Republican Senator Mitt Romney—who remains detested by much of the GOP voting base and routinely votes against the interests of his party and his voters” Romney has an excellent record of supporting Republican policies. What he doesn’t support is some unqualified reality show, failed businessman, ex-President who doesn’t support Republican values is making a mockery of the GOP.

John
2 months ago
Reply to  Paul K Ogden

Mitt Romney disappointed me because he is envious and bitter. Donald Trump was the most effective President we have had and he did more for the USA than any President we have ever had. He made the “Deep State” so angry they have revealed who they are. Donald Trump may have saved America by revealing how truly corrupt the Left is. Romney has proven he cannot see the big picture and is so worried about getting along that he compromises his principles. Like General Patton, Donald Trump was and is needed to turn the war for the soul of America around. We are not in OZ any more and we better wake up. The Left wants socialist-communist control. If you do not see that clearly you are not paying attention and may be self-deluded. Take the red pill and have your eyes open. American values do matter, America matters, we must unite to save America.

Peter
2 months ago
Reply to  John

I wholeheartedly agree with your comment!

Rebecca Gavin
14 days ago
Reply to  John

Envious of Donald Trump? Hilarious. I don’t particularly like Romney but at least he has some class.

NewDay
2 months ago
Reply to  Paul K Ogden

I don’t know of any republican values that Prsident Trump did not support? which ones are you talking about?

David Lilly
2 months ago

If they do not engage and succeed in electoral cheating on a level matching or above the democrat party they wont win much of anything moving forward.
America, you have lost your country.

Truc Nguyen
2 months ago
Reply to  David Lilly

That’s 101% true. Period.

DeeLite
2 months ago

United and until Republicans call out and correct Democrat electoral fraud, they will continue to come up just short every time.

DeeLite
2 months ago
Reply to  DeeLite

Unless and until…

Paul K Ogden
2 months ago
Reply to  DeeLite

There is zero evidence of that. Stop buying the Trump nonsense that keeps costing us in the GOP elections.

Peter
2 months ago
Reply to  Paul K Ogden

You must love Mitch? Trump is truly amazing man! Trump 2024! Trump loves America!Mitch loves China!

JudyB
2 months ago
Reply to  DeeLite

Amen

Guy Cooksey
2 months ago
Reply to  DeeLite

The Stupid Party (GOP) verses the Evil Party (DEM). The Evil Party wins every time! Wake up GOP!

GTPATRIOT
2 months ago

Republicans are lazy , unimaginative campaigners with no plan .

GTPATRIOT
2 months ago

Based on this last election, I see the Repubs losing seats in the House and Senate in 2024.
If the Repubs could not wipe the floor in Nov this year with the hand of four aces they held
they will never win. Biden handed the Repubs a gift and they dropped it.

Guy Cooksey
2 months ago
Reply to  GTPATRIOT

Voter Fraud is everywhere with the Dems. Voter ID Same Day voting (In person) and paper ballots are the only answer.

David L
2 months ago

The Republican Party does not use their power and are not united. The Republicans enjoy being the minority party. The Republicans when they controlled the legislature did not make changes to Obama-care. They chose not to take a leadership role to amend and change the health care system but instead squabbled among themselves. The Democrats vote in unison and by doing so are very powerful. I did not believe these mid-term elections would result in a red wave and I was proven correct. Mitch McConnell does not like the limelight. Mitt Romney votes like he is from the moon. I do not believe Mitt Romney would have been a successful President if he had defeated Obama. The Democrats easily control things since the media is solidly with them. Frankly, we need two new political parties which govern effectively.

David Lilly
2 months ago
Reply to  David L

Even IF the gutless republican party booted all the rinos like mcconnell and romney they cannot win moving forward until they master gaming elections like the democrats have.
Once this cheating becomes bi-partisan, as it is sure to by 2024, it’s all over.
Which means it already all over.

Larry D Viles
2 months ago

No worries, Democrats- Mitch McConnel will help you all he can.

Supad
2 months ago

When you live in a echo chamber, its a wonder you cant believe you lost, get out a little visit the city, see that Americans don’t all think alike, if the GOP wants to win elections learn to be more tolerant and respectful of different races, sexual preferances, lifestyles. People don’t need morality police we need good public policy, and most definitely not authoritarianism, extremism, because Repugs are still in denial they want to blame their failings on non-existent fraud. The Silent majority spoke in 2022 and will continue to speak to yall get the message. Please nominate Donald Trump again so the silent majority can dash his hopes again!!

Peter
2 months ago
Reply to  Supad

Stealing elections is the Democrat party! Republicans aka RINOs are complicit in the Election Theft÷

Ron S.
2 months ago

I think the author is being too optimistic. I could see 2-3 GOP pick up, but that’s it.

Mason
2 months ago

An actual map in this article would have been great!

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